Yale / Entrepreneurship

Debt Markets: Term Structure

By Robert Shiller | Financial Markets Lecture 10 of 26

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Lecture Description

The markets for debt, both public and private far exceed the entire stock market in value and importance. The U.S. Treasury issues debt of various maturities through auctions, which are open only to authorized buyers. Corporations issue debt with investment banks as intermediaries. The interest rates are not set by the Treasury, the corporations or the investment bankers, but are determined by the market, reflecting economic forces about which there are a number of theories. The real and nominal rates and the coupons of a bond determine its price in the market. The term structure, which is the plot of yield-to-maturity against time-to-maturity indicates the value of time for points in the future. Forward rates are the future spot rates that can be calculated using today's bond prices. Finally, indexed bonds, which are indexed to inflation, offer the safest asset of all and their price reveals a fundamental economic indicator, the real interest rate.

Course Description

Financial institutions are a pillar of civilized society, supporting people in their productive ventures and managing the economic risks they take on. The workings of these institutions are important to comprehend if we are to predict their actions today and their evolution in the coming information age. The course strives to offer understanding of the theory of finance and its relation to the history, strengths and imperfections of such institutions as banking, insurance, securities, futures, and other derivatives markets, and the future of these institutions over the next century.

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Lecture Transcript and Reading Assignment

Course Index

  1. Finance and Insurance as Powerful Forces in Our Economy and Society
  2. Review of Probability and Statistics; Intro to Present Value
  3. Technology and Invention in Finance
  4. Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial Institutions (CAPM Model)
  5. Insurance: The Archetypal Risk Management Institution
  6. Efficient Markets vs Excess Volatility
  7. Behavioral Finance: The Role of Psychology
  8. Human Foibles, Fraud, Manipulation, and Regulation
  9. Investing for the Long Run
  10. Debt Markets: Term Structure
  11. Stocks
  12. Real Estate Finance and Its Vulnerability to Crisis
  13. Banking: Successes and Failures
  14. The Efficiency of Markets
  15. Guest Lecture by Carl Icahn
  16. The Evolution and Perfection of Monetary Policy
  17. Investment Banking and Secondary Markets
  18. Professional Money Managers and Their Influence
  19. Brokerage, ECNs, etc
  20. Private Equity and the Financial Crisis
  21. Forwards and Futures
  22. Stock Index, Oil and Other Futures Markets
  23. Options Markets
  24. The Democratization of Finance
  25. Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis, Part I
  26. Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis, Part II
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