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Demography and Asset Pricing

By John Geanakoplos - Yale
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Lecture Description

In this lecture, we use the overlapping generations model from the previous class to see, mathematically, how demographic changes can influence interest rates and asset prices. We evaluate Tobin's statement that a perpetually growing population could solve the Social Security problem, and resolve, in a surprising way, a classical argument about the link between birth rates and the level of the stock market. Lastly, we finish by laying some of the philosophical and statistical groundwork for dealing with uncertainty.

Course Description

Course Index

  1. Why Finance?
  2. Utilities, Endowments, and Equilibrium
  3. Computing Equilibrium
  4. Efficiency, Assets, and Time
  5. Present Value Prices and the Real Rate of Interest
  6. Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest
  7. Collateral, Present Value and the Vocabulary of Finance
  8. Budgeting for a Long-Lived Institution, Yield
  9. Dynamic Present Value
  10. Social Security
  11. Overlapping Generations Models of the Economy
  12. Demography and Asset Pricing
  13. Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk
  14. Uncertainty and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis
  15. Backward Induction and Optimal Stopping Times
  16. Callable Bonds and the Mortgage Prepayment Option
  17. Modeling Mortgage Prepayments and Valuing Mortgages
  18. History of the Mortgage Market: A Personal Narrative
  19. Dynamic Hedging
  20. Dynamic Hedging and Average Life
  21. Risk Aversion and the Capital Asset Pricing Theorem
  22. The Mutual Fund Theorem and Covariance Pricing Theorems
  23. Risk, Return, and Social Security
  24. The Leverage Cycle and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
  25. The Leverage Cycle and Crashes