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Risk, Return, and Social Security

By John Geanakoplos - Yale
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Lecture Description

This lecture addresses some final points about the CAPM. How would one test the theory? Given the theory, what's the right way to think about evaluating fund managers' performance? Should the manager of a hedge fund and the manager of a university endowment be judged by the same performance criteria? More generally, how should we think about the return differential between stocks and bonds? Lastly, looking back to the lectures on Social Security earlier in the semester, how should the CAPM inform our thinking about the role of stocks and bonds in Social Security? Can the views of Democrats and Republicans be reconciled? What if Social Security were privatized, but workers were forced to hold their assets in a new kind of asset called PAAWS, which pay the holder more if the wage of young workers is higher?

Course Description

Course Index

  1. Why Finance?
  2. Utilities, Endowments, and Equilibrium
  3. Computing Equilibrium
  4. Efficiency, Assets, and Time
  5. Present Value Prices and the Real Rate of Interest
  6. Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest
  7. Collateral, Present Value and the Vocabulary of Finance
  8. Budgeting for a Long-Lived Institution, Yield
  9. Dynamic Present Value
  10. Social Security
  11. Overlapping Generations Models of the Economy
  12. Demography and Asset Pricing
  13. Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk
  14. Uncertainty and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis
  15. Backward Induction and Optimal Stopping Times
  16. Callable Bonds and the Mortgage Prepayment Option
  17. Modeling Mortgage Prepayments and Valuing Mortgages
  18. History of the Mortgage Market: A Personal Narrative
  19. Dynamic Hedging
  20. Dynamic Hedging and Average Life
  21. Risk Aversion and the Capital Asset Pricing Theorem
  22. The Mutual Fund Theorem and Covariance Pricing Theorems
  23. Risk, Return, and Social Security
  24. The Leverage Cycle and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
  25. The Leverage Cycle and Crashes