fertility
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In addition to cultural controls acting to maximize fertility, there are important, and often competing, interests of individual families to limit fertility. Unwanted births are dealt with by infanticide in many cultures. Additionally, fertility is regularly controlled by limiting marriage within a culture. Another very important factor in population growth, especially in the tropics, is food availability. Heavy rains in the tropics wash n...more
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Census data is often politically influenced and hence inaccurate. The birthrate in developing countries is nearly twice that in developed countries. Most humans live in less developed countries, so the world birthrate is near the higher number. The world birthrate is two and a half times the death rate; we are not close to population stabilization. Almost everywhere, the death rate has been drastically reduced; further changes will not mas...more
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China's early demographic history is similar to that of Europe; population grows only slowly due to war, disease and Malthusian resource limitation. Later, introduction of American foods allowed cultivated land to expand, but population expanded even more rapidly, leading to an extremely dense, but poor population. During this time, female infanticide was frequent, but almost all surviving girls got married. Within marriage, their fertilit...more
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Families lived together in traditional China and sons remained on the land; division of family land led to tiny plots and rural poverty. Because labor was so cheap, the country did not urbanize or mechanize. The Communist government started out with a pro-natal stance, but after experiencing the famine of the Great Leap Forward, moved strongly to fertility control. Fertility declined rapidly in the 1970s, but to counter momentum, the One-C...more
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World population will continue to rise until at least 2050. Environmental impact is the product of the number of people and how much of their income and technology is devoted to either consumption or conservation. So far, the balance is far at the consumption end and, globally, environmental problems are increasing. Environmentalism has not come close to counteracting the footprint of a billion extra people every dozen years. The only mass...more
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Media and the Fertility Transition in Developing Countries (Guest Lecture by William Ryerson)
Yale / Biology
Guest lecturer William Ryerson is President of the Population Media Center which produces radio and TV serial dramas in developing countries that aim to effect behavior change on women's status, family planning and AIDS. Working with governments and in-country media professionals, these melodramas run for hundreds of episodes and are watched by millions. Careful research shows major changes in audience knowledge, attitudes and practices.
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In many regions, the central cultural idea is that of a lineage, a family and its line of male ancestors and descendants. The prime duty in these cultures is to keep the lineage going. Religion is small scale with the ancestors performing many of the functions of gods. Denser populations and larger political entities lead to large-scale religion where conformity is stressed and cultural rules are codified in a book and not subject to discu...more
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Concerns about low fertility have been present in many countries for at least 100 years. A large population was considered essential to national power. But the issue is never simply a shortage of warm bodies: overall the world population has increased dramatically over this period and untold numbers would immigrate, if allowed. The issue is the number of the 'right sort' of people, defined as those having preferred national, religious, rac...more
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Until recently, the world population has been growing faster than exponentially. Although the growth rate has slowed somewhat, there are about 80 million more people each year and about 3 billion more will be added by 2050 (a 50% increase). Population will probably increase more beyond that. Such growth is unprecedented and we cannot predict its long-term effects. The environmental impact of this population increase is bound to be astronom...more
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This survey course introduces students to the important and basic material on human fertility, population growth, the demographic transition and population policy. Topics include: the human and environmental dimensions of population pressure, demographic history, economic and cultural causes of demographic change, environmental carrying capacity and sustainability. Political, religious and ethical issues surrounding fertility are also addr...more
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Surveys show that most women are having more children than they would prefer to have. Further, studies show that the vast majority of women know about various forms of contraception. One World Bank study has shown that family planning programs have little impact unless they are attended by improved living standards and increasing status of women.
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In East and South Asia there are many more boys than girls. Previously, this resulted from female infanticide, now it is sex-selective abortion. In those cultures, girls generally marry out of the family as teenagers and thus provide no benefit for the family that raised them. Bangla Desh is agriculturally very rich, but its population is so dense that per capita income is one of the lowest in Asia. Despite the poverty, an excellent family...more
