Yale / Entrepreneurship

Stock Index, Oil and Other Futures Markets

By Robert Shiller | Financial Markets Lecture 22 of 26

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Lecture Description

Futures markets have expanded far beyond their initial application to farmer's planting and harvest cycles. These markets now allow investors and traders to set prices for a broad spectrum of assets and for a whole term structure stretching into the distant future. Some of these markets are often priced according to simple fair-value formulae, others are not. Futures markets can be in backwardation, where the future price is lower than the present, spot price. They can also be in contango, where the price rises with maturity and is higher in the future than it is today. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a recent invention that has transferred the mechanics of futures markets to the prices of single-family homes in ten real estate markets, in an effort to create a national market for residential real estate.

Course Description

Financial institutions are a pillar of civilized society, supporting people in their productive ventures and managing the economic risks they take on. The workings of these institutions are important to comprehend if we are to predict their actions today and their evolution in the coming information age. The course strives to offer understanding of the theory of finance and its relation to the history, strengths and imperfections of such institutions as banking, insurance, securities, futures, and other derivatives markets, and the future of these institutions over the next century.

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Lecture Transcript and Reading Assignment

Course Index

  1. Finance and Insurance as Powerful Forces in Our Economy and Society
  2. Review of Probability and Statistics; Intro to Present Value
  3. Technology and Invention in Finance
  4. Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial Institutions (CAPM Model)
  5. Insurance: The Archetypal Risk Management Institution
  6. Efficient Markets vs Excess Volatility
  7. Behavioral Finance: The Role of Psychology
  8. Human Foibles, Fraud, Manipulation, and Regulation
  9. Investing for the Long Run
  10. Debt Markets: Term Structure
  11. Stocks
  12. Real Estate Finance and Its Vulnerability to Crisis
  13. Banking: Successes and Failures
  14. The Efficiency of Markets
  15. Guest Lecture by Carl Icahn
  16. The Evolution and Perfection of Monetary Policy
  17. Investment Banking and Secondary Markets
  18. Professional Money Managers and Their Influence
  19. Brokerage, ECNs, etc
  20. Private Equity and the Financial Crisis
  21. Forwards and Futures
  22. Stock Index, Oil and Other Futures Markets
  23. Options Markets
  24. The Democratization of Finance
  25. Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis, Part I
  26. Learning from and Responding to Financial Crisis, Part II
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